Greetings!
Some of the best things in life work quietly in the background, compounding their benefits over time.
That idea runs through this week’s Advice for the Good Life.
In this week’s Wealth Advisory, we look beyond the headlines surrounding artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve to a bigger question: Could AI meaningfully increase productivity—and, with it, economic growth and living standards? Meanwhile, the Fed must navigate stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market. For investors, the challenge is separating what matters today from what is likely to matter over the next decade.
Then Christine takes us from artificial intelligence to something considerably more ancient: olive oil. In Wellness Navigator, she explains why extra virgin olive oil deserves a regular place in the kitchen, including its potential benefits for the brain, inflammation, gut health, and healthy aging—and what to look for when buying it.
Different subjects, same principle: small improvements, consistently applied, can produce extraordinary results over time.
That’s true of technology, investing, and health.
And it’s a pretty good recipe for the Good Life.
Enjoy!
This Week’s Wealth Advisory: The Fed’s AI Dilemma…What Investors Should Know for the Long-Term
The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer once wrote that “economic growth springs from better recipes, not just from more cooking.”1 This foundational concept in economics holds that raising living standards is not simply a matter of adding more workers or equipment, but of enabling each worker to produce greater quantities of goods and services, as well as higher quality ones.
This idea is often captured through the concept of “productivity,” which serves as the essential ingredient for economic growth that meaningfully improves wages and quality of life. It is also one of the most pressing questions of the current moment, as the adoption of artificial intelligence continues to accelerate.
At first glance, AI and Federal Reserve policy may appear unrelated, but the two are closely linked. In the near term, this connection runs through their combined effects on financial markets and interest rates, while over longer horizons the relationship is shaped by productivity and broader economic growth. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently addressed these themes at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.2 Given the considerable impact AI has already had on markets and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy direction, what should investors keep in mind from a long-term perspective?
AI’s role in shaping long-run economic growth
To appreciate why productivity matters so much, it helps to consider how economists think about growth. Standard economic models center on workers and “capital,” a term that encompasses equipment, machines, and tools. Equally important, however, are education and technology, both of which allow workers to produce more using the same amount of capital.
Consider a restaurant: it can produce more meals by adding cooks, upgrading its equipment, or training its staff to make better use of the tools and ingredients already on hand. Similarly, a more knowledgeable doctor with access to advanced facilities can deliver better patient outcomes. While economic models inevitably simplify reality, the core insight remains that generating more and better output per worker, regardless of the field, is what genuinely drives improvements in wages and living standards over time.
This is precisely why productivity growth carries such significance, even though it is difficult to measure with precision. What makes AI’s potential effect both compelling and hard to forecast is that it touches nearly all of these factors simultaneously. Depending on one’s perspective, AI can be viewed as labor, capital, and a mechanism for generating entirely new methods and technologies. Warsh, for instance, framed this question in his speech as whether AI would be “complementary or competitive to labor.”
The science fiction version of the answer is that AI replaces workers entirely, particularly those whose roles involve processing information, such as data analytics or computer programming. However, the evidence does not yet point clearly in that direction. Current observations suggest that AI may instead function as another tool that helps workers accomplish more, much as the information technology revolution did in earlier decades. As early evidence of this, some companies are now rehiring after they previously reduced their workforces due to AI.3
The chart above illustrates that productivity growth has varied considerably across decades, but has generally risen alongside the adoption of new technologies. The expansion of the 1990s, for instance, was accompanied by an acceleration in output per worker, even though the gains took time to materialize.4
Inflation remains the central concern for the Fed
The Fed’s more immediate priority is inflation. The Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, shows that inflation rose 3.7% year-over-year, with core PCE at 3.3%.5 Both readings remain well above the Fed’s 2% target, and progress over the past two years has been limited, largely due to higher oil and gasoline prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. In the near term, this places the Fed in a challenging position as it works to balance economic growth against persistent price pressures.
Markets have been actively trying to anticipate when the Fed might raise rates, contributing to recent volatility. Current expectations point to at least one rate hike by year-end, and possibly two by the close of the first quarter of next year. These expectations can shift quickly as new economic data and Fed guidance emerge, and they have already moved considerably over the past several months.
Over the longer term, however, the picture could look quite different depending on how AI and other technology trends unfold. Technology is inherently deflationary, since greater output and higher quality goods can lead to lower prices over time. If AI were to meaningfully lift productivity, the economy could sustain faster growth and higher wages while keeping inflation more moderate.
This point is especially relevant because many current sources of inflation trace back to more recent developments, such as elevated oil prices, data center construction, semiconductor shortages, and related factors. These drivers have less to do with monetary policy and productivity, and they could recede over time. That process takes time and can involve unexpected developments along the way, so investors are well served by not placing too much weight on any single inflation report.
The labor market as a key indicator for investors
In the near term, the current state of the labor market points to a healthy economy overall. While layoffs have affected certain sectors, many of these trends reflect cost-cutting and broader technology adoption rather than AI specifically. Most notably, the unemployment rate remains historically low at 4.1% and has held steady for the past two years. Wage growth has moderated, but at 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, earnings remain solid by historical standards.6
Why has unemployment remained so low even as monthly job gains have been uneven? One important factor is that labor supply has expanded very slowly, owing to aging demographics and reduced immigration. The labor force participation rate fell to 61% in July, near its lowest level in decades, as more individuals exit the workforce, including a large number of baby boomers.
Immigration restrictions have further constrained the growth of the available labor pool. When labor supply is barely expanding, monthly job gains can naturally remain modest, even as workers hold onto existing positions and companies continue to hire when the need arises. This may help explain why initial jobless claims, which reflect workers seeking benefits following layoffs, are near historic lows.
Across technology, inflation, and the labor market, it is important for investors to weigh near-term factors against longer-term trends. In the short run, markets face uncertainty tied to the conflict in Iran, the pace of data center buildouts, and other developments. Over the course of years and decades, however, productivity growth and broader economic trends are what will ultimately shape financial markets. Maintaining focus on long-term goals remains the most reliable path toward financial success.
The bottom line? The Fed faces a difficult balance between inflation and the job market, especially as AI trends continue to develop. For investors, it’s best to maintain a long-term perspective aligned with financial goals.
References
- https://paulromer.net/economic-growth/
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/employers-who-laid-off-workers-for-ai-are-reversing-their-decisions.htm
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
- https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The Wellness Navigator, Your Brain & Metabolic Health Coach, Christine Despres, RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
Why Olive Oil Needs to Be Your New BFF in the Kitchen
If you’ve been following along, you know I traveled to Italy this summer. I didn’t make it to Sardinia, one of the actual Blue Zones, those pockets around the world where people live longer, sharper lives, but there’s still so much to take away from Italian culture more broadly, especially when it comes to food. One thread runs through the Blue Zones and Italian life alike: olive oil, consumed daily, without a second thought.
The brain research on olive oil specifically is honestly kind of remarkable. A Harvard study tracking more than 92,000 adults for nearly three decades found that just half a tablespoon a day was linked to a 28 percent lower risk of dying from dementia.
Benefits include:
- Strengthens the blood-brain barrier
- Calms neuroinflammation
- Feeds a healthier gut microbiome
- Its polyphenols act as antioxidants protecting brain cells from age-related damage
That’s a world away from the era a lot of us grew up in, when fat free was the ticket and we were quietly starving our brains of exactly what they needed most. Meanwhile Twizzlers were practically health food.
Real olive oil is just pressed olive fruit, and extra virgin means the first cold pressing, no refining, which is what keeps those polyphenols intact in the first place.
What to Look for When You Buy It
Not all olive oil on the shelf is created equal, so here’s what I actually check for:
- A harvest date, not just a “best by” date. Olive oil doesn’t improve with age like wine does, it declines, and the harvest date tells you how fresh it really is.
- A dark glass or tin bottle, never plastic. Light breaks down the polyphenols that make olive oil worth buying in the first place, and oil can also leach chemicals from plastic over time.
- A specific origin, ideally a single estate or region, not a vague “blend of oils from more than one country.”
- A quality seal if you can find one, groups like the California Olive Oil Council or the International Olive Council test for authenticity. Organic is optional but a bonus.
- Store it in a cool, dark cabinet, not next to the stove, and try to use it within a few months of opening.
One tip: have one workhorse olive oil for everyday cooking (this is the one I keep on hand: https://amzn.to/4i3a228), and one nicer finishing oil, something peppery and fresh, for salads and dipping where you actually taste it, like NeuroReserve’s high polyphenol EVOO: https://neuroreserve.com/products/bhk-organic-extra-virgin-olive-oil-high-polyphenol
Easy Swaps
- Sautéing or roasting? Olive oil instead of seed oils.
- Spreading on toast? Olive oil instead of margarine.
- Dressing a salad? Olive oil instead of bottled dressing.
- Dipping bread? Olive oil instead of butter.
Make Your Own Dressing
6 tablespoons olive oil, 2 tablespoons red wine vinegar, 1/2 teaspoon dried oregano, salt and pepper to taste. Shake together in a jar. Makes about 1/2 cup, roughly 4 to 6 servings at 2 tablespoons each. Prep a jar for the week, then add your favorite spices or a spoonful of Dijon to change it up. Once you start making your own, you’ll never look back.
Your Daily Dose
Two tablespoons of extra virgin olive oil, daily, is the target most research points to. It’s one of the core pillars of the MIND diet, the way of eating built specifically around brain outcomes.
Next week I’ll get into the other half of this picture, omega-3s, and why olive oil alone isn’t the whole story.
Ready to build a brain strategy that’s actually yours? Book a free Brain Strategy Call at https://christinedespres.as.me
Enjoy,
Christine
The Wellness Navigator | Brain & Metabolic Health Coach | RN, NBC-HWC, CDP