Greetings!
Election season is heating up, and if history is any guide, so will the rhetoric. But while elections matter greatly to us as citizens, they’ve historically mattered far less to long-term investment outcomes than the economy, earnings, inflation, and interest rates.
In this week’s Wealth Advisory, we look beyond the political noise to examine what nearly a century of market history can teach us about midterm elections—and why voting with your ballot rather than your portfolio may be the wiser course.
Then, Wellness Navigator Christine Despres brings things much closer to home—and to the dinner table. Against the backdrop of the current Cyclospora outbreak, Christine makes the case for fresh, seasonal and locally grown food, along with a few simple precautions that can help reduce risk without making us afraid of the produce aisle.
Two very different subjects, but perhaps one common lesson: pay attention to what matters, control what you can, and don’t let fear make your decisions for you.
As always, thank you for reading Advice for the Good Life. If you find something useful here, please share it with someone you care about—and invite them to subscribe.
All for One, One for All,
Wealth Advisory: The Mid-Term Election and Long Term Investing
With the November midterm election drawing closer, political campaigns are intensifying across the nation. Politics have become increasingly divisive over recent decades, and it is natural for investors to question whether election outcomes should shape their financial decisions. Now more than ever, it is essential to keep political views separate from investing and avoid letting them drive changes to portfolios and financial plans.1
Midterm elections take place every four years at the midpoint of a presidential term and determine the makeup of Congress. Current polling suggests a divided government is the most likely outcome, though margins in both chambers remain narrow, leaving plenty of room for change in the months ahead.2 In the House, 218 seats are required for a majority, and Republicans currently hold 219, meaning Democrats would need to flip only a handful of races to take control. In the Senate, Republicans hold a stronger position with 53 seats, although prediction markets have shown shifting expectations.3
For citizens, voters, and taxpayers, elections carry profound importance. They shape the direction of policy on matters ranging from entitlement programs and taxes to the federal debt. That said, investors need not get caught up in the granular details. History demonstrates that Washington politics have far less bearing on long-term portfolio outcomes than many people might expect. Understanding why this is the case can help investors stay focused on the long run as election season intensifies.
Midterm election years have historically delivered positive average returns
It may seem intuitive that politics should move markets, and that investors might be better off on the sidelines during election years. Since elections influence economic policy, which in turn affects industries and companies, one might assume that election years carry greater volatility and risk.
However, the historical record tells a different story. The accompanying chart shows that returns have been positive on average across election and non-election years alike, stretching back to the Great Depression. While there is natural variation among these different types of years, markets have performed well under Republican administrations, Democratic administrations, and divided governments.4
This does not mean every year produces positive results. Each period was shaped by a distinct set of circumstances tied to the phase of the business cycle. Recent midterm election years illustrate this well. In 2022, significant inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic weighed on returns, while in 2018, concerns about global growth and Federal Reserve policy drove markets lower. In both cases, the negative outcomes reflected underlying economic conditions rather than the fact that a midterm election was occurring.
Longer-term market trends are similarly disconnected from politics. The information technology revolution that took shape in the 1990s, the housing boom and bust of the mid-2000s, the inflationary pressures following the pandemic after 2020, and the current wave of AI innovation have each influenced markets in meaningful ways that had little to do with the occupants of the White House or Capitol Hill.
It is also common for a president who enters office with a Congressional majority to lose it by the midterm election. In recent decades, this pattern held for President Biden during his single term, President Obama during his first term, President George W. Bush in his second term, and President Clinton in his first term, among others. Political scientists have explored many explanations for this phenomenon, including shifts in voter preferences and public psychology that tend to emerge roughly two years into a four-year presidential term. Regardless of the exact causes, both markets and the broader economy have expanded steadily throughout these decades.
The economy and interest rates drive portfolios more than political outcomes
For long-term investors, the business cycle and interest rates have historically been far more significant drivers of market and portfolio performance than the question of which party controls the White House or Congress. The chart above illustrates the current environment of elevated interest rates and the effect they have had on markets, businesses, and consumers. While policymakers can influence rates to some degree, they are ultimately determined by broader, longer-term economic trends.
This matters because political change tends to be incremental and takes time to filter through the economy. The difficulty of sustaining Congressional majorities reflects the deliberate design of the American political system. Even when policy shifts appear significant, as has been the case with changes to taxes and tariffs in recent years, their actual impact on the economy, whether positive or negative, is often smaller and slower to materialize than many anticipate. The pace of economic growth, corporate earnings, inflation, and employment are shaped by a wide range of forces beyond any single policy change.
This year’s election is unfolding against a backdrop that includes geopolitical conflict, inflation, and concerns surrounding artificial intelligence, among other factors. These dynamics have been far more consequential for markets, corporate earnings, and interest rates than the specifics of individual Congressional races. Despite short-lived bouts of uncertainty, major stock market indices have managed to generate double-digit returns. Keeping the broader environment in view, rather than focusing narrowly on the midterm election, remains the more productive approach for investors.
Market growth has continued across administrations of both parties
Perhaps the most compelling perspective for long-term investors is that markets have delivered strong performance across many different political cycles. The accompanying chart shows that the S&P 500 has grown over the past century, spanning a wide variety of political environments, wars, recessions, policy changes, and much more.5
This is not to suggest that policy is irrelevant or that markets are immune to volatility. Debates over tax rates, defense spending, and the federal debt can have real consequences for the economy over time. The outcome of this election could influence the legislative agenda in areas that include the trajectory of the Iran conflict, tax provisions, tariffs, and the national debt. These are issues that many investors follow closely and care about deeply.
The key, however, is distinguishing between what investors can and cannot control when it comes to their portfolios and financial plans. Making one’s voice heard at the ballot box is important, but acting on political views through investment decisions can undermine long-term financial goals. Maintaining a portfolio constructed to perform across a range of economic and political environments is a more reliable strategy than attempting to predict the outcome of any single election.
The bottom line? Midterm elections carry great significance for the country, but it is important to keep politics separate from investing. History shows that, even during election years, staying disciplined and focused on fundamentals is the best way to achieve financial goals.
References
- https://www.usa.gov/midterm-elections
- https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/2026
- https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms
- Clearnomics research and Standard & Poor’s data, as of August 7, 2026
- Clearnomics research and Standard & Poor’s data, as of August 7, 2026
Wellness Navigator and Holistic Brain Health Coach, Christine Despres, RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
Farm Fresh Isn’t Just a Preference, It’s Protection
There’s an outbreak going around right now, and it has a name most people have never heard of, Cyclospora, a parasite that’s been traced back to mass produced, imported produce like packaged lettuce and salad greens. This seems to happen every so often with a different name and various outcomes to our overall health and wellness.
To me, it’s a good reminder of something I talk about constantly, choosing seasonal, fresh, local produce whenever you can.
Some of the reasons are the obvious ones.
Local produce tends to have higher nutrient content because it’s picked at peak ripeness instead of weeks early to survive a long trip across the country. It hasn’t sat in plastic packaging long enough to start breaking down before it even reaches your kitchen. It’s far less likely to carry the kind of contamination behind outbreaks like this one, simply because fewer hands and fewer miles stand between the farm, processing methods and your plate. You know exactly where it came from, who grew it and how. And honestly, it just tastes so much better.
Growing your own is the gold standard, since nothing beats knowing exactly what touched your food from seed to plate, and there’s real brain healthy value in the process itself, being outside, using your hands, and the kind of calm, repetitive movement that gardening involves. Not everyone has the time or space for a garden though, maybe someday.
Work your way toward a favorite farm stand or market instead, one you trust and visit regularly. And during times of concern about an outbreak, frozen vegetables are a smart no risk option, since they’re flash frozen at peak ripeness and carry none of the contamination risk that comes with fresh produce sitting out or traveling long distances.
When in doubt, cook it. It stinks not ordering a salad or fresh veggies when you’re out, or feeling like you have to think twice about GI distress every time you eat. And it’s not that you’re eating at Taco Bell either, you just don’t always know. I have no problem being a special order gal in these times. “Can I get the bowl with all the vegetables cooked please?” Thank you.
But you can lower your risk without living in fear.
Here are a few ways to do it:
- Choose cooked vegetables over raw when eating out during an active outbreak
- Skip precut fruit and vegetables, since more hands and more exposed surface area mean more chances for contamination
- Rinse all produce under running water, even if the skin isn’t eaten or it’s pre washed
- Buy local and in season whenever you can
- Keep frozen vegetables on hand as a no risk backup
Stay safe out there,
Christine
The Wellness Navigator | Brain & Metabolic Health Coach | RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
P.S. Join me for the next Brain Boost Session on Wednesday 8/2/26 10 am ET to learn why the brain loves healthy fats.
Sign up here: Brain Boost Sessions