Mid-Year Lessons: Staying Invested, Staying Curious

Greetings!

Welcome to this week’s Advice for the Good Life.

This newsletter is about helping you live well today while preparing wisely for tomorrow—because a good life is about more than investment returns or a number on a balance sheet.

On the wealth side, we work alongside private clients to turn income into assets, assets into optionality, and optionality into lasting wealth. That means making thoughtful decisions through changing markets, competing priorities, and the inevitable uncertainty of investing and life.

At the halfway point of 2026, investors have already navigated war, inflation, volatile energy prices, questions about AI, interest rates, and elevated valuations. Yet markets have climbed, corporate earnings have grown, and diversified investors have been rewarded.

In this week’s Wealth Advisory, we look at the lessons from the first six months—and what they might teach us about staying disciplined, diversified, and prepared for what comes next.

Then, our Wellness Navigator, Christine Despres, explores how intentional travel—whether across an ocean or simply somewhere new—challenges the brain, awakens curiosity, and can quite literally help rewire us for joy.

Together, the two pieces share a common theme: the good life is not built by standing still.

We grow by investing, exploring, learning, adapting, and continuing to move forward with purpose.

As always, thank you for reading. If you find something useful, encouraging, or worth sharing, please pass it along and invite someone to subscribe.

Enjoy!

 

Wealth Advisory: What the First Half Teaches Investors About the Road Ahead

There is an old saying that smooth seas do not make skillful sailors. In the world of investing, this idea has rarely been more relevant than during the first half of 2026. Investors navigated a series of significant events, including the war in Iran, oil prices pushing inflation to multi-year highs, and questions surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). Despite these headwinds, markets climbed to new all-time highs, corporate earnings expanded at a double-digit pace, and a wide range of asset classes delivered solid returns. The first six months of the year have served as a powerful reminder of why staying invested and maintaining a longer time horizon matters so much.

This lesson carries even greater weight today, given that the business cycle has now entered its seventh year while the market cycle is approaching its fifth. For many investors, it can feel as though the same set of concerns keeps resurfacing, including inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and valuations. Managing these competing pressures is not merely a challenge of investing; it is precisely why investors who remain committed to their long-term strategy tend to be rewarded over time.

There will undoubtedly be unexpected developments in the second half of the year, from shifts in the ongoing Middle East conflict and the upcoming midterm election, to new market activity such as initial public offerings (IPOs). Understanding how to maintain perspective as these events unfold is essential for investors.

Key market and economic highlights from the first half of 2026¹

• The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have returned 9.6%, 12.8%, and 8.9% year-to-date through the end of June, respectively. The second quarter was historically strong with the S&P 500 returning 14.9%, the Nasdaq 21.4%, and the Dow 12.9%.
• The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has risen 0.6% year-to-date. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the second quarter at 4.47%, rising from 4.17% at the start of the year.
• Developed market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) have gained 7.7% and emerging market stocks (MSCI EM) have returned 22.7% year-to-date, both in U.S. dollar terms.
• The Bloomberg Commodities Index has risen 12.3% year-to-date. This was due to a strong first quarter which experienced a gain of 23.3%, versus a decline of 8.9% in the second quarter.
• Brent crude peaked just under $120 per barrel in May before closing the quarter at $73 per barrel.
• Gold prices fell to $4,007 per ounce while Bitcoin declined to a recent low of $58,633.
• Headline CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.9%.
• The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% through the first half of the year. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair in May.

The business cycle has now entered its seventh year

It may come as a surprise to some investors that the current business cycle began in April 2020, amid the pandemic, and recently passed its sixth anniversary in the second quarter. There have been several moments when investors and economists grew concerned about a potential recession, including when inflation peaked in 2022 and when tariffs disrupted trade last year. Through each of these episodes, the economy has proven resilient, continuing to expand despite considerable headwinds.

The business cycle touches virtually every dimension of investing and financial planning, from mortgage costs to annual wage growth. A healthy economy supports consumer spending and business investment, which in turn fuels corporate earnings and, ultimately, stock market returns. While the stock market and the broader economy are not identical, they are often closely connected. The chart above places the current cycle in historical context. Notably, the longest business cycles on record, including the one that followed the 2008 financial crisis and the expansion of the 1990s during the dot-com boom, lasted for a decade or more.

How does the economy look today? Inflation remains elevated but could ease if oil prices stay low. The labor market has regained momentum, reversing concerns from last year about a sluggish pace of hiring. The dollar has stabilized and recently recovered some ground, trade conditions remain uncertain but have become less volatile, and business investment has picked up. Consumers express a degree of pessimism in surveys, yet they continue to spend on both essential and discretionary goods. On balance, the economy appears to be in reasonably good health despite some mixed signals, a backdrop that has historically been favorable for financial markets over the long run.

Broad asset class strength has supported diversified portfolios this year

A wide range of global asset classes has contributed positively to portfolios in the first half of 2026, building on the trend established last year. This includes not only large cap domestic stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, but also small caps, emerging markets, and commodities, as illustrated in the chart above. The second quarter, in particular, stands out as one of the strongest on record. This is partly attributable to the timing of the war in Iran, which set the stage for a market recovery beginning at the start of April.

Several themes have driven these returns, including the resilience of the economy, hopes for a peace agreement in Iran, and growing enthusiasm around AI. Many of these factors have supported corporate earnings growth, with profits for S&P 500 companies rising over 20% over the past twelve months.² This constructive market environment has also sparked a wave of high-profile IPOs, including SpaceX in the second quarter, alongside the anticipated listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, both AI companies.

While investors tend to focus heavily on the first few days of an IPO when media attention is at its peak, the true benefits of these listings typically materialize over a much longer period. These new listings expand the investment opportunity set for all investors, which is particularly meaningful given that many companies have chosen to remain private for longer. What matters most is how these businesses perform over the years and decades that follow. The largest technology companies of today, for example, built their value over extended periods spanning multiple market and economic cycles.

All of these positive trends do mean that U.S. stock valuations are historically elevated. The S&P 500 currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20x, above the long-term historical average of 16x.³ These valuation measures do not predict short-term market direction, but they do serve as useful guides for constructing long-term portfolios, particularly when evaluating other asset classes and risk management strategies. Taken together, this year’s asset class returns reinforce the value of maintaining a well-balanced approach.

Inflation remains elevated, though lower oil prices offer some relief

The trajectory of the conflict in Iran has affected the U.S. economy primarily through energy markets. Disruptions to oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude to nearly $120 per barrel before prices retreated substantially. In recent weeks, oil prices have fallen to around $70, close to pre-conflict levels. Gasoline prices have followed a similar pattern on a delayed basis, peaking above $4.50 per gallon nationally before pulling back to below $4.00 per gallon more recently.⁴

These energy price swings have had a direct impact on inflation readings. The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, its highest level in several years, with the gasoline component surging 40.5% over the same period. Importantly, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose only 2.9%.⁵ This distinction suggests that inflationary pressure has been concentrated in fuel costs rather than reflecting a broader, more entrenched trend.

With oil prices declining in recent weeks, many economists are cautiously optimistic that inflation may be near its peak. This pattern is consistent with other past geopolitical events that temporarily disrupted oil supply, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and several others highlighted in the chart above. Once conditions stabilized in those prior episodes, oil prices generally improved and inflation rates gradually moderated over time.

Market volatility has remained within manageable bounds

Investors have become increasingly familiar with brief bouts of volatility triggered by macroeconomic developments. Over just the past year, events ranging from tariffs and the Middle East conflict to uncertainty surrounding the Fed have each contributed to short-lived market swings. This pattern is visible in the VIX index, a widely used measure of stock market volatility. Encouragingly, the current VIX reading of 16 sits below its long-term average of 18.4 and well below recent peaks. As shown in the chart above, periods of elevated volatility have historically coincided with some of the greatest market opportunities.

Another useful way to assess the impact of market moves on investors is to consider the largest pullback experienced in any given year. So far in 2026, the S&P 500’s largest peak-to-trough decline has been 9%. While such pullbacks are never comfortable to endure, markets have a tendency to rebound when investors least anticipate it. At present, not only has the market fully recovered from its earlier decline, but the S&P 500 has reached 24 new all-time highs so far this year.⁶

The first half of 2026 illustrates that the most significant risk investors face during periods of market stress is not the volatility itself, but the decisions made in response to it. The temptation to time the market during uncertain periods is understandable, but it can frequently produce poor outcomes. A more effective approach is to hold a well-constructed portfolio designed to weather all phases of the market cycle while serving long-term financial goals. By doing so, investors are better positioned to manage the inevitable periods of uncertainty that the second half of the year may bring.

Remaining invested continues to be a critical advantage

One consequence of investors exiting the market during volatile periods is commonly described as “cash on the sidelines.” The central challenge with this approach is determining the right moment to re-enter. The chart above illustrates the scale of cash currently sitting on the sidelines. Money market fund assets have reached a record $7.9 trillion, more than double their pre-pandemic level when interest rates were near zero. This reflects both the market uncertainty of recent years and a period of higher short-term rates that made holding cash more appealing.

Although cash may appear safe and stable on the surface, the challenge is that cash yields often fail to keep pace with inflation. For example, current average rates on certificates of deposit mean that the real income from cash holdings is currently negative after adjusting for inflation.⁷ Even when nominal yields on money market funds and short-term instruments look attractive, challenges can arise both from the erosive effects of inflation and the difficulty of sustaining those rates over time. As a result, the purchasing power of cash holdings can diminish gradually.

This reinforces why holding a balanced portfolio capable of generating growth, income, and capital preservation remains the more prudent path. As the market and economic cycle continues to evolve, this principle will only become more important.

The bottom line? The first half of 2026 has rewarded investors who stayed diversified and maintained a long-term perspective, even as geopolitical and economic headlines created short-term uncertainty.

References

1. All figures are as of June 30, 2026 and are on a price return basis unless otherwise noted
2. Clearnomics research and LSEG data as of June 30, 2026
3. Ibid.
4. https://gasprices.aaa.com/
5. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
6. Clearnomics research and Standard & Poor’s data as of June 30, 2026
7. Clearnomics research and FDIC data as of June 30, 2026

 

Wellness Navigator and Holistic Brain Health Coach, Christine Despres, RN, NBC-HWC, CDP

How Intentional Travel Rewires Your Brain for Joy

Most people don’t think about their upcoming trip as a brain health strategy. But from the moment you book the flight, your brain is already doing something important.

I’m heading to Florence, Italy this summer to visit my daughter who is studying abroad. And I’ve been struck by how much cognitive work goes into getting there. I haven’t traveled internationally for quite some time so the complexity and coordination needed surprised me even though my family owned a travel agency growing up.

The last time I was in Europe was 1997.  I had a backpack, Eurail pass, $50 a day budget and I was a vegetarian. It’s going to be sooo different and I can’t wait.

Comparing flights, navigating train schedules, converting currency, budgeting in a different economy. That’s executive function and problem-solving firing together before I’ve packed a single thing.

Then there’s the research. Learning the history and culture of where you’re going changes how you see everything when you arrive. Not a checklist of sites to tick off, but a more personal question: which places matter most to me and why? How does this destination fit into the story I want to experience?

That kind of curiosity and intentional planning is one of the most underrated ways to engage your brain.

And then there’s packing. I do not travel light.

This is a real challenge for me. Getting everything I need into one suitcase that isn’t overweight, shoes broken in for cobblestones, a purse that works with everything, layers for different regions and weather. It’s a puzzle. Literally. Spatial reasoning, prioritization, planning for the unexpected. If packing stresses you out, just know your brain is working very hard and that counts.

I’ve been working on my Italian. I won’t pretend it’s coming easily. But I know what the research says and I know that trying matters. Even a handful of words activates memory, pattern recognition, and processing pathways that everyday life rarely touches. And beyond the brain benefits, knowing the basics is a sign of respect. You are a guest in someone else’s country. Making the effort means something.

You don’t have to be fluent. You just have to try.

Here’s something I want you to think about. Giving yourself credit for what you’re already doing triggers a dopamine response that lights up the same reward pathways that keep you coming back for more. When you understand what’s good for your brain and why it matters, that awareness becomes its own momentum. It stops feeling like another thing on your list and starts feeling like taking care of your greatest asset.

You don’t have to cross an ocean to get these benefits.

A weekend trip, a day in a town you’ve never visited, a cooking class an hour from home. Brain health benefits can be found in any experience that takes you somewhere you haven’t been before.

It just has to be new.

Safe travels wherever your summer is taking you.

Buon viaggio,

Christine

The Wellness Navigator | Brain and Metabolic Health Coach | RN, NBC-HWC, CDP

thewellnessnavigator.com