Greetings!
This week’s edition of Advice for the Good Life explores the intersection of markets, wellness, and global change—and why perspective matters more than ever.
In today’s Wealth Advisory, we examine how OPEC, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and record market highs are shaping today’s investment environment, while making the case for disciplined, long-term investing over emotional reactions to headlines.
Next, our Wellness Navigator, Christine Despres offers a thoughtful and deeply human reflection on motherhood, caregiving, and the neuroscience of nurturing—reminding us that caring for others may be one of the healthiest things we can do for ourselves.
And in Etcetera, we zoom out to the larger geopolitical chessboard as Trump and Xi meet amid rising tensions surrounding trade, AI, rare earth minerals, and the future architecture of the global economy.
As always, we hope you enjoy today’s edition. If something resonates, please share it with a friend, colleague, or family member—and if you haven’t already, we’d be honored if you subscribed.
Thanks, as always, for reading.
Wealth Advisory: How OPEC, Tariffs, and Record Highs Intersect with Long-Term Investing
Throughout much of stock market history, investing centered primarily on selecting individual stocks and bonds. Over recent decades, however, macroeconomic developments have come to exert a growing influence on financial markets. Major events—whether stemming from central bank decisions, geopolitical tensions, or shifts in global trade—now have the ability to move nearly all stocks simultaneously, regardless of company-specific fundamentals. For investors, this evolution means that constructing modern portfolios is less about identifying promising individual securities and more about making asset allocation decisions that reflect long-term financial goals.
This dynamic has been particularly evident over the past year and a half, during which the two most consequential macroeconomic forces have been the war in Iran and U.S. tariff policy. Though distinct in nature, both have the potential to affect consumer prices and business demand—either directly through elevated energy costs or indirectly through the price of imported goods. A defining characteristic of these macro-driven events, however, is that their effects tend to diminish over time. As a result, it is important for investors to maintain focus on longer-term trends and resist the urge to restructure their portfolios in response to any single event.
The middle east conflict, gasoline prices, and the evolving role of OPEC
One of the most tangible ways the conflict in Iran has affected American households is at the gas pump. The national average for regular unleaded gasoline has risen to approximately $4.50 per gallon, well above long-term historical averages and a notable increase from levels recorded just a few months ago. In certain regions of the country, prices have already surpassed $6 per gallon.1 Since energy costs feed directly into the Consumer Price Index, headline inflation has moved higher, adding complexity to an economic environment that had previously been on an improving trajectory.
For some observers, the current environment may evoke memories of the 1970s Arab Oil Embargo, when supply disruptions led to soaring inflation and gasoline rationing. However, the global energy landscape has shifted considerably since that era. Notably, the U.S. has become the world’s largest energy producer, generating more than 13 million barrels of oil per day. This development has meaningfully reduced the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to global oil supply disruptions.
Additionally, the recent decision by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to exit OPEC serves as a further illustration of how the global energy environment has transformed. For decades, OPEC members collectively played a central role in setting global oil prices, primarily by coordinating production levels—a process that has always been difficult to implement and verify across roughly a dozen member nations. Preventing member countries from producing beyond agreed-upon limits has proven to be a persistent challenge.
The UAE’s departure highlights the diminishing cohesion of the cartel, as individual member nations increasingly pursue their own national strategies and production objectives. At its height in the 1970s, OPEC accounted for at least half of the world’s oil supply. Today, that share has declined to approximately one-third.2 In an effort to compensate for this erosion, the broader OPEC+ coalition—which includes Russia and several other nations—was established, though the same coordination challenges continue to apply.
The declining influence of OPEC does not eliminate the risk of oil price surges during periods of geopolitical instability, but it does suggest that prices are less sensitive to OPEC decisions than they once were. While this may offer limited comfort to households feeling the strain of higher fuel costs, it does help explain why the broader market impact of recent energy price increases has not been more severe.
Tariff policy continues to navigate legal challenges
The second major macroeconomic theme has been tariff policy, which has continued to face significant legal scrutiny. In February, the Supreme Court determined that the tariffs enacted last April under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal.3 In response, the administration pivoted to implementing these tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. More recently, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these Section 122 tariffs are also unlawful.4
Despite these legal setbacks, the administration has signaled its intent to continue pursuing tariffs as a core element of its geopolitical strategy. Several other legal authorities remain available, including Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits tariffs following investigations into specific countries’ trade practices. Investigations of this kind have already been launched against dozens of countries, indicating that tariffs are likely to persist—though potentially in the form of country-specific rates rather than broad-based measures.
At the same time, the refund process for previously collected tariffs is now underway. Customs and Border Protection has begun processing refund claims, and some importers have already started receiving payments.5 Estimates indicate that total refunds could amount to between $160 and $170 billion.
Although the full scope and timeline of refunds remains uncertain, any amounts returned could provide a meaningful boost to earnings and cash flow for affected importers. From a purely economic standpoint, these refunds represent a reversal of a prior transfer rather than a new source of value creation. Nevertheless, they carry positive implications for both businesses and consumers.
Markets have climbed to new all-time highs despite ongoing uncertainty
For investors, global developments can cause broad market indices and individual stocks to move sharply in response to events that have little bearing on the performance of any specific company. That said, another hallmark of these types of events is that their market impact tends to recede over time. News surrounding wars, energy prices, tariffs, and similar issues can introduce volatility, but such factors rarely determine long-term market outcomes.
This helps to explain why, despite the considerable uncertainty of the past year and a half, the S&P 500 has still achieved more than a dozen new all-time highs this year. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, new record highs are a recurring feature of bull markets, even amid a persistent flow of investor concerns. What ultimately drives markets over time is the broader backdrop of corporate earnings growth and economic expansion, both of which have remained on solid footing.
The bottom line? Today’s market environment is shaped by global forces that tend to come and go. Staying invested with a well-constructed portfolio remains the best way to navigate uncertainty and achieve long-term financial goals.
References
1. https://gasprices.aaa.com
2.https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/Global_Surplus_Crude_Oil_Production_Capacity/full-report.pdf
3. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11398
4. https://www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/files/26-47.pdf
5. https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/ieepa-duty-refunds
Index Description
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Wellness Navigator and Holistic Brain Health Coach, Christine Despres,RN,NBC-HWC, CDP
You Don’t Have to Have Given Birth to Be a Mother
“Love begins at home, and it is not how much we do, but how much love we put in the action that we do.” — Mother Teresa
Whether you were being celebrated, doing the celebrating, cherishing a memory, or a beautiful and unique combination of all of the above, I hope you had a wonderful Mother’s Day. Because no two families look alike, I have concluded that this is exactly what makes each one so exceptional.
Whether you are the grandmother stepping in, the child who became the caregiver, or the dad playing both roles, it is less about the title and more about what you make of it and how much love you pour into the people in your care.
As a single parent myself, I know what it looks like when there is no one making the coffee or cooking breakfast. And there is something quietly powerful in that. The single parent who has learned to be both, the soft place and the steady one, the nurturer and the provider, is doing something remarkable.
That dual role, in whatever form it takes, is not a consolation prize. It is a masterclass in love and your kids are watching every single day. The perseverance it takes to be a caregiver, the grace under pressure, the refusal to let the hard parts win, that is the greatest example you could give them. You didn’t need someone to bring you coffee. And honestly, it’s about time they learned how to make it themselves. Ha.
Here’s what I’ve come to believe: mothering is a verb, not a title.
You can mother a friend through a hard year, a patient who is dying, a garden you’ve coaxed back from the brink every spring, a dog who thinks you hung the moon.
Some of the most profound mothering I witnessed in thirty years of nursing had nothing to do with biology — a neighbor who showed up and never left, a mentor who saw something in you before you saw it in yourself, a friend who became family.
That distinction matters. When we engage in caregiving — tending to something or someone with consistency and intention — the brain releases oxytocin, which directly affects inflammation, cortisol, and immune function. Brain health at its finest.
Caring for others isn’t just emotionally meaningful.
It’s neurologically nourishing.
So wherever you show up as a nurturer, give yourself full credit.
Caring is not a moment. It is a state of mind.
And the brain loves it when you give more than you receive.
Besides, the reward of being someone’s superhero is priceless.
With warmth,
Christine
The Wellness Navigator | Holistic Brain Health Coach | RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
https://www.thewellnessnavigator.com/
Trump, Xi, and the New Chessboard
Much attention has been paid lately to President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but beneath the headlines lies a much larger story—one that may shape markets, technology, trade, and global power for years to come.
A thoughtful recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations argued that the meeting is less about friendship or theatrics and more about leverage, necessity, and managing an increasingly fragile global relationship.
The old narrative was simpler: America made things, China manufactured cheaply, and both sides benefited from trade. Today, the stakes are far higher.
China remains dominant in several strategically important areas, including rare earth minerals essential to electronics, batteries, and AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, the United States still leads in capital markets, innovation, and military influence. Both nations need one another more than either would prefer to admit.
The article suggests that Xi may enter negotiations with more leverage than many Americans realize. China understands that the U.S. economy—and global markets—benefit from stability in energy prices, supply chains, and manufacturing inputs. At the same time, President Trump likely wants visible economic wins, calmer markets, and reduced geopolitical uncertainty heading into the heart of the election cycle.
In practical terms, investors and business leaders are watching for three things:
First, whether both sides can avoid a renewed escalation in tariffs and trade restrictions.
Second, whether tensions surrounding Taiwan remain contained.
Third, whether global supply chains—particularly those tied to semiconductors, energy, and industrial production—can remain functional without further fragmentation.
Perhaps most importantly, this is no longer simply a debate over free trade versus protectionism. Increasingly, the competition is about who will control the next economic operating system: artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, energy infrastructure, strategic minerals, and technological dependence itself.
In that sense, the Trump-Xi relationship matters not merely because of politics, but because it sits at the intersection of markets, national security, and the future architecture of the global economy.
Whatever one’s political leanings, this much seems clear: the world is entering a period where economic resilience, diversification, and adaptability may matter more than ever.
That’s all for today.
Have a great week,
