Greetings!
This week’s Advice for the Good Life brings perspective where it matters most—your money, your health, and the bigger picture behind both.
In today’s Wealth Advisory, we look at what it means for markets to “climb the wall of worry.” Despite inflation, rate hikes, geopolitical tension, and nonstop headlines, bull markets have a way of rewarding patience over panic. The lesson remains the same: long-term discipline beats short-term reaction.
Next, our Wellness Navigator, Christine shares a deeply personal and timely reflection on losing a parent, caregiving, and the way grief reshapes us from the inside out. With Mother’s Day approaching, it’s a powerful reminder to extend grace to ourselves and others carrying invisible weight.
And in Etcetera, economist Brian Wesbury unpacks the latest GDP data, showing why the economy may be growing, but still feels stuck in second gear. Beneath the AI buzz and big headlines, the reality is slower, steadier, and worth understanding.
As always, we hope you’ll enjoy, share, and subscribe.
Wealth Advisory: Climbing the Wall of Worry (Again)…Lessons from Another Bull Market
More than three-and-a-half years have now passed since the bull market’s inception in October 2022. At that time, inflation was surging at its fastest rate in five decades, the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates, and ChatGPT had yet to be released to the public. Since then, the S&P 500 has more than doubled in value, and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has fully recovered.
While the world has changed considerably since then, the presence of market concerns in the headlines has not. Every cycle introduces new challenges and prompts questions about whether the enduring rules of investing still hold. In reality, each cycle is unique, characterized by different catalysts, innovations, and sources of uncertainty. And yet, the core principles of investing and financial planning have remained consistent across decades, continuing to guide investors in the right direction.
Bull markets steadily advance despite persistent concerns
Even as geopolitical events continue to influence markets, the more meaningful consideration for long-term investors may be the broader market cycle. With the market trading near all-time highs, it is natural for some investors to grow concerned about pullbacks and corrections. These events can occur quite frequently—historically, the S&P 500 has experienced four or five pullbacks of 5% or more each year, on average.1 While such declines are never pleasant, long-term investing is far more dependent on historical patterns spanning years and decades. This is one reason why overreacting to short-term market swings can be counterproductive, potentially leaving investors poorly positioned relative to their long-term financial goals.
Investors frequently observe that markets climb a “wall of worry.” Over the past several years, markets have navigated high inflation, a banking crisis in 2023, geopolitical conflicts, the risk of a Fed policy error, AI-related market concentration, tariff-driven volatility, and more. None of these concerns were minor, and yet, through all of them, the market has continued to perform well.
The chart above illustrates this pattern going back to World War II. Over this 70-year period, bull markets have lasted considerably longer and produced far greater gains than what is lost during bear markets. Specifically, bear markets have typically lasted one to two years on average, while recent bull markets have extended to ten years or longer. Even when corrections occur within bull markets, the average decline is 14%, with the average recovery taking just four months.2
For example, the bull market that followed the 2008 financial crisis lasted nearly eleven years. Despite this, it is often described as “the most unloved bull market” because of the persistent stream of market and economic concerns throughout. In hindsight, it is clear that even when those concerns were legitimate—such as worries about the pace of economic recovery or the size of the national debt—they did not warrant changes to long-term portfolios.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and how quickly markets recover depends on specific circumstances. However, the historical record makes clear that attempting to react to every market movement has, more often than not, caused investors to miss much of the gains that ultimately followed.
Economic growth serves as the bedrock of long-term investment returns
Although the stock market and the broader economy are distinct, they are closely interrelated. Corporate earnings, which ultimately depend on economic growth, are a key driver of stock prices over the long run. This is why monitoring the broader economic cycle remains important, even as markets respond daily to a wide variety of short-term factors.
The current business cycle has technically been running two-and-a-half years longer than the market cycle. The most recent official recession, as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, was the brief but sharp contraction associated with the pandemic in 2020. Since then, there have been quarters of slower growth and periodic predictions of recession, none of which have materialized.
Today, the economy remains healthy by many measures, even as investors closely monitor three key areas. First, oil prices above $100 per barrel, if sustained, could weigh on consumer spending and add to inflationary pressures. Second, the labor market has slowed meaningfully, particularly in sectors such as technology, raising questions about whether consumer spending—which has been robust in recent years—will remain resilient. Third, the scale of AI-related investment has prompted questions about whether a “bubble” is forming, an understandable concern given that many of today’s investors have experienced both the dot-com bust and the housing crisis.
Bubbles are notoriously difficult to identify in real time, and history demonstrates that not every period of elevated valuations ends in a dramatic collapse. In the current cycle, unlike in some prior periods, earnings growth has supported valuations and many companies are making significant investments from their profits. For long-term investors, maintaining a balanced allocation across different segments of the market remains the key to capturing growth while managing risk.
Stocks and bonds remain complementary in a diversified portfolio
Every market cycle raises questions about whether traditional portfolio management principles remain applicable. In 2022, when both stocks and bonds declined simultaneously amid rapidly rising inflation and interest rates, some investors questioned whether bonds still offered meaningful value in a diversified portfolio. Similar doubts arose following the 2008 financial crisis, when bonds faced headwinds from historically low interest rates.
Over the past few years, bonds have not only recovered but also provided meaningful income and portfolio stability. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index delivered positive returns in each of the past two years, helping to offset periods of equity volatility. International stocks and commodities have also contributed positively, providing additional diversification benefits.
This pattern is consistent with what history demonstrates across cycles. Every period seems to prompt the question of whether “this time is different” regarding the relationship between asset classes. In the 1970s, inflation posed significant challenges to traditional portfolios. During the dot-com era, technology stocks garnered outsized attention despite limited corporate profits, making other sectors appear unappealing. In 2022, rising interest rates created simultaneous pressure on both stocks and bonds. Elements of each of these challenges are present in today’s environment.
In each instance, adhering to the principles of diversification and long-term investing proved to be the right course of action. As uncertainty persists and new headlines continue to move markets, focusing on the broader picture remains more important than ever.
The bottom line? More than three-and-a-half years into this bull market, the foundational principles of long-term investing remain as relevant as ever. Markets have consistently rewarded those who maintain balanced portfolios and remain focused on their long-term financial goals.
Footnotes
- The number of pullbacks is based on S&P 500 index price returns since 1980.
- The average size of corrections and recovery time are calculated from S&P 500 index total returns, since World War II.
Wellness Navigator and Holistic Brain Health Coach, Christine Despres, RN,NBC-HWC,CDP
Losing a Parent Changes You at the Cellular Level
On grief, caregiving, and what your brain carries long after the loss.
Mother’s Day is two weeks away. Father’s Day follows in June. For many of us, this time of year carries a particular weight that the greeting card displays do not quite account for. Whether your parent is gone, or whether the parent you are caregiving is no longer quite the person who raised you, these holidays have a way of bringing everything back to the surface.
I lost my mother when she was 57. And in my years working in hospice and dementia care, I watched it happen from the other side too. Families pouring everything they had into caring for a parent who was fading. Adult children who were exhausted in a way that had nothing to do with lack of sleep.
Losing a parent is in a category of its own. And it is never easy, no matter how old you are when it happens.
Caregiving is grief in slow motion
If you have cared for an aging parent, you know that the loss does not wait for the end. You grieve the person they were while you are still caring for who they are now, and bracing for what is coming.
Anticipatory grief is real and it is one of the most underacknowledged forms of chronic stress there is. Your nervous system does not distinguish between the loss that has happened and the loss that is coming. And then death comes and you expect the grief to follow a schedule. The body does not work that way.
What grief does to the brain
Your brain registers the loss of a parent as a genuine threat. Cortisol floods the system. The prefrontal cortex, responsible for clear thinking and emotional regulation, begins to function differently. That fog, the forgotten words, the inability to make simple decisions, is not weakness. It is your brain under an enormous load, processing something it was not built to process quickly.
What actually helps
Elisabeth Kübler-Ross was a Swiss American psychiatrist who spent her career sitting with the dying and the people who loved them. Her five stages of grief, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance, were never meant to be a checklist. They were meant to say: whatever you are feeling right now has a name, and you are not alone in it. That is still the most useful thing anyone can offer a grieving person. Not advice. Not a timeline. Just the understanding that this is real, it is hard, and the only way through it is your own.
As Mother’s Day approaches
Give yourself a break from thinking you should feel better by now. Grief does not run on a schedule. Instead, savor the memories. Cherish the stories. Honor the life they lived and the love they left behind.
If you are caregiving right now, the grief you feel before the loss is just as valid as the grief that comes after. If you have already lost a parent, the length of time since the loss does not determine how much you are allowed to still feel it.
Be gentle with yourself this season.
With care,
Christine
The Wellness Navigator | Holistic Brain Health Coach | RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
- If you’re ready to start investing in your greatest asset, I’d love to be your guide.
👉 Book a free Brain Health Strategy Session here: Click Here to Schedule Your 30 minute Strategy Call
https://www.thewellnessnavigator.com/
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 4/27/2026
For all the chatter about Artificial Intelligence lifting economic growth, GDP isn’t showing it yet. We are projecting that real GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter, matching the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial Panic and so-called Great Recession. In other words, mediocre growth.
But the details for the first quarter are likely to be worse than the headline. Real GDP grew at a slow 0.5% rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 in some part because it was artificially held down by a lack of purchases by the federal government during a prolonged shutdown. Excluding government, Real GDP grew at a 1.7% rate in Q4. For the first quarter, this process should work in reverse. Purchases by the federal government went back to normal in Q1, which should artificially boost GDP growth for the quarter.
We are estimating that although overall real GDP grew at a 2.0% pace in Q1, excluding government purchases it grew at about a weak 1.1% pace. Robust growth, this is not.
The US economy is not in recession, but it is not in a boom either. Remember, the size of government boomed during COVID and has not fully returned to its pre-COVID level. In the meantime, government spending has been roughly flat the past year or so. In time, this will help boost economic growth. But in the short-term it can cause some indigestion.
Consumption: Auto sales declined at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1 while “real” (inflation-adjusted) retail sales excluding autos rose at a 1.8% rate and real service spending appears up at a 2.6% pace. Combined, this brings our estimate of real consumer spending to a 1.6% rate, adding 1.1 points to the real GDP growth rate (1.6 times the consumption share of GDP, which is 68%, equals 1.1).
Business Investment: We estimate a 2.4% growth rate for business investment, with gains in equipment and intellectual property leading the way and commercial construction a continuing drag on growth. A 2.4% growth rate would add 0.3 points to real GDP growth. (2.4 times the 14% business investment share of GDP equals 0.3).
Home Building: Residential construction is still weak and appears to have declined at about an 11.0% rate in the first quarter, possibly reflecting a lack of workers to build homes while strict immigration enforcement makes more units available for rent. An 11.0% annualized drop would be a 0.4 point drag on real GDP growth. (-11.0 times the 4% residential construction share of GDP equals -0.4).
Government: The shutdown of the federal government in the fourth quarter artificially held down purchases for that quarter but should result in a rebound in Q1. We estimate these purchases rose at a 6.5% rate in Q1. The rebound in Q1 should add 1.1 points to the GDP growth rate (6.5 times the 17% government purchase share of GDP equals 1.1).
Trade: It looks like the trade deficit grew slightly in the first quarter, although this forecast may change when the trade report arrives Wednesday morning. For now we’re projecting net exports will reduce the Q1 real GDP growth rate by 0.3 percentage points.
Inventories: It looks like businesses added to inventories at a faster pace in the first quarter than late last year, which should add what we estimate to be 0.2 percentage points to real GDP growth.
Add it all up, and we get a 2.0% annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter. Without government, annualized growth would be around 1.1% in Q1 after 1.7% in Q4, which is the epitome of mediocre growth.
That’s all for today.
Here’s to a strong finish to your week,
