Greetings!
This week’s Advice for the Good Life brings together three powerful threads—markets, mindset, and major life decisions—each designed to help you move forward with clarity and confidence.
In today’s Wealth Advisory, we unpack how the ongoing Iran conflict is influencing inflation, energy prices, and market behavior. While headlines can feel unsettling, the underlying story is more nuanced: energy-driven inflation hasn’t broadly spread, the labor market is evolving, and corporate earnings remain resilient—creating both challenges and opportunities for long-term investors .
Next, our Wellness Navigator, Christine Despres invites us into a quieter, but equally important arena: the thoughts that shape our stress, sleep, and overall health. Her message is simple but profound—the story you tell yourself at 3 am is not the truth, and learning to question it can be life-changing.
And in Etcetera, we tackle one of the most important (and often misunderstood) topics for those approaching or living in retirement: Medicare. From IRMAA cliffs to coverage choices, this is a practical guide worth saving and revisiting as decisions here can have lasting financial implications .
If something resonates, share it with someone who could benefit. If you haven’t subscribed, we’d be honored to have you join us each week.
Because the good life isn’t just built—it’s stewarded, one wise decision at a time.
Wealth Advisory: Inflation and Earnings in Focus as the Conflict in Iran Continues
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continues to shape market sentiment, with investors reacting to each new development. An initial ceasefire announcement helped ease tensions and pushed oil prices lower, with Brent crude dropping into the $90 range. However, the subsequent collapse of peace negotiations sent prices climbing back above $100 per barrel, underscoring how rapidly the geopolitical landscape can shift. While the situation remains fluid, the most pressing question for long-term investors is how these developments affect the broader economy, businesses, and consumers.
Geopolitical conflicts typically influence financial markets primarily through energy prices, which have a direct impact on fuel costs and can ripple throughout the wider economy. The extent to which this affects overall prices depends largely on how long energy costs remain elevated. Understanding these dynamics can help investors maintain a sense of perspective. Specifically, inflation, labor market conditions, and corporate earnings offer valuable insights in the current market environment.
Rising energy costs are pushing headline inflation higher
The most immediate way the Iran conflict is affecting consumers is through surging energy prices. The most recent Consumer Price Index report for March revealed that energy costs climbed 12.5% year-over-year, with gasoline prices jumping 18.9% and fuel oil rising 44.2%. These increases pushed headline CPI to 3.3%, a notable acceleration that has raised understandable concerns about a return to the inflationary conditions seen in 2022. Much of this increase was anticipated, given that the conflict in Iran began at the end of February.
Importantly, the CPI report also indicates that higher energy costs have not yet spread meaningfully to other key consumer categories. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose just 2.6% year-over-year, coming in below consensus expectations and only marginally above the prior month’s reading of 2.5%. A narrower measure that also strips out housing costs, sometimes referred to as “supercore” inflation, increased by only 2.3%.
These figures suggest that while energy price pressures are being felt at the consumer level—with gasoline averaging $4.12 per gallon nationally, and considerably more in certain regions—they have not yet broadly permeated the economy. This distinction is significant, as the primary economic concern is that sustained elevated oil prices could eventually drive up energy, transportation, and manufacturing costs, feeding into the prices of goods and services more widely.
Without minimizing the burden that higher gasoline prices place on households, economists generally regard these types of supply-side shocks as temporary in nature. The relative stability of core inflation supports the view that, once conditions in the Middle East stabilize, inflation could return to pre-conflict levels. The decline in oil prices following the initial ceasefire announcement further reinforces this hope. However, the timing of any resolution remains highly uncertain given the fluid nature of the conflict.
The labor market is softening, though demographics add complexity
Beyond inflation, the health of the labor market is another key metric for investors to watch. The most recent employment report offered a positive surprise, with 178,000 new jobs added in March, surpassing expectations of just 65,000. However, the prior month’s figure was revised sharply lower to a loss of 133,000 jobs, a reminder that these numbers can be volatile and subject to substantial revision.
Taking a broader view, the overall trend has been one of slowing job creation. Since the start of 2025, the economy has added an average of roughly 21,000 jobs per month, a considerable slowdown from the 122,000 monthly average recorded in 2024. Notably, the unemployment rate has not risen significantly—edging down slightly to 4.3% in March—but this reflects a shrinking labor force rather than robust hiring activity.
One useful lens for understanding this dynamic is the labor force participation rate, which measures the share of working-age Americans who are either employed or actively seeking work. As the accompanying chart illustrates, this rate has fallen to just 61.9%, its lowest level since the pandemic. This is not a new trend; labor force participation has been on a gradual decline since the early 2000s, driven largely by demographic factors, particularly an aging population. For context, over 11,000 baby boomers are reaching retirement age every single day.
These demographic shifts, combined with reduced immigration, mean that fewer working-age Americans are active in the labor force, which complicates traditional interpretations of labor market health. When participation is lower, the economy needs fewer new jobs each month to sustain low unemployment, making headline figures more challenging to assess in isolation.
A closer look at the composition of recent job gains reveals an uneven picture. Much of the growth has been concentrated in the “Education and Health Services” sector, while the “Information” sector has experienced job losses, as reflected in layoff announcements from major technology companies. Meanwhile, wage growth has moderated to 3.4% year-over-year—a pace that still outpaces the overall inflation rate for many workers, providing some continued support for consumer spending.
What does this all mean for investors? Consumers are contending with higher costs at a time when labor market conditions are becoming less favorable. That said, the unemployment rate remains stable, suggesting that those who wish to work are still finding employment. The key change is that a smaller proportion of the population is actively participating in the workforce compared to prior periods.
Corporate earnings continue to demonstrate resilience
Amid uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, inflation, and employment, corporate earnings have emerged as a notable bright spot for investors. Despite the headwinds outlined above, consumers have continued to spend, and profit margins have held up well across many industries. Current Wall Street estimates indicate that S&P 500 earnings-per-share have grown approximately 16% over the past twelve months, with projections calling for an additional 18% growth over the year ahead. These are historically strong figures, well above the long-term average growth rate of 7.7%.
Of course, earnings estimates should always be viewed with appropriate caution, as they are based on analyst projections that may shift as economic conditions change. Tariff policies, higher energy costs, and a slowing labor market all have the potential to weigh on profitability in the quarters ahead. Nevertheless, the current trajectory of earnings growth is one reason stock market valuations have improved recently, alongside the market pullback itself.
This serves as a reminder that periods of uncertainty, while uncomfortable, can also present the most compelling opportunities for long-term investors. When markets experience volatility driven by geopolitical developments, earnings expectations often do not shift as dramatically as stock prices. While this does not guarantee a swift market recovery, it does suggest that investors who maintain a long-term perspective and hold well-diversified portfolios are frequently rewarded for their patience.
The bottom line? Higher energy prices are weighing on the economy at a time when consumers are already navigating a number of challenges. However, strong earnings growth and more attractive valuations have created meaningful opportunities for long-term investors. Maintaining a balanced, diversified portfolio and staying focused on long-term financial goals remains the most prudent approach in this environment.
Wellness Navigator and Holistic Brain Health Coach, Christine Despres,RN,NBC-HWC,CDP
The Story You Tell Yourself at 3 am Is Not the Truth.
Last week I asked you to write down one thought. Not your grocery list or your to-do pile. The quiet one. The thought that kept you up at 3 am. The call that did not end well and that you have replayed a dozen times since. The worry about your memory, your sleep, whether you are doing enough. The one that shows up when things get still and you finally have a moment to hear it.
If you missed last week, here is all you need to know. Stress does not just affect how you feel. It shows up in your body too — in the tension you carry in your shoulders, the sleep that will not come, the fatigue that coffee does not fix, the brain fog that makes you question your memory.
And a significant part of what drives all of it is not what is happening around you. It is the thoughts running on a loop inside you that you have never stopped to question. That is what this stress talk is about.
Here is what I want you to know about that thought. It is not the truth. It is a story. And the work of Byron Katie, one of the most powerful voices in the self-inquiry space, is built entirely around that idea. (To order her book, Loving What Is, click here.)
Her premise is simple. It is not the situation causing your suffering. It is the thought you believe about it. And the moment you stop and actually question that thought — really question it — something shifts.
Your assignment last week was to write the thought running in your head. Just notice it. Write it down. Remember, your brain cannot examine what it cannot see and you cannot change a pattern you have never stopped to question. One thought. Written down. Now we dig a bit deeper.
She offers four questions to help you do exactly that:
- Can I absolutely know that it is true?
- How do I feel when I believe this thought?
- Who would I be without it?
- Could the opposite be just as true?
That is the work.
Simple, uncomfortable, and genuinely life changing when you practice it.
The thoughts are not going anywhere, and neither is their impact on your brain, your body, and your long-term health. If any of this landed for you, I do not want you to let that sit.
This is exactly the kind of work we do together in my program, Reignite Your Mind & Your Metabolism: The Midlife Blueprint for Brain Clarity, Weight Loss and Lasting Energy. Check it out!
If you want to learn more or just need someone to talk to, I am here for you.
Be well,
Christine
RN | Board-Certified Health & Wellness Coach | Certified Dementia Practitioner | Holistic Brain Health Coach | Nutrition Coach
https://www.thewellnessnavigator.com/
P.S.👉 Book a free Brain Health Strategy Session here:
Click Here to Schedule Your 30 minute Strategy Call
Navigating Medicare: What Retirees Need to Know
For most retirees, healthcare ranks among the largest and least predictable expenses in retirement, potentially totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars over time. While healthcare funding can come from a variety of sources, Medicare plays a central role in retirement financial planning. Despite its significance, many Americans find Medicare’s rules and structure difficult to navigate.
Developing a clear understanding of how Medicare works, the decisions it requires, and how those decisions interact with a broader financial strategy is vital for retirees and those approaching retirement. Making well-informed choices can help preserve savings, optimize health coverage, and manage cash flow throughout a multi-decade retirement.
The growing relevance of Medicare
President Lyndon B. Johnson signed Medicare into law on July 30, 1965. The program originally consisted of Part A (Hospital Insurance) and Part B (Medical Insurance), collectively referred to as Original Medicare. Over the years, Congress has broadened the program to serve more Americans and provide additional benefits, including prescription drug coverage. Today, Medicare covers more than 68 million Americans, including roughly 61 million individuals aged 65 and older and approximately 7 million younger people living with disabilities.1
The program’s significance has grown alongside steadily rising healthcare costs. According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, national health expenditures in 2024 reached approximately $15,474 per person, representing 18% of GDP. Over the coming decade, healthcare spending is projected to grow faster than GDP. For retirees who often rely on fixed incomes, Medicare provides crucial financial support against these escalating costs.
The program is currently organized into four parts:
- Part A covers inpatient hospital stays, skilled nursing, and hospice care, and is typically available without a premium for those with at least ten years of work history.
- Part B covers physicians’ services, outpatient care, and preventive services, and requires a monthly premium that may increase based on income.
- Part C, commonly known as Medicare Advantage, is offered by private insurers as an alternative to Original Medicare and frequently includes expanded benefits such as dental, vision, and hearing coverage.
- Part D offers optional prescription drug coverage through private insurers and is also subject to income-based surcharges.
A widespread misconception holds that Medicare is entirely free because workers have contributed to it through payroll deductions for years. While Part A is indeed premium-free for most people, Part B premiums, supplemental coverage, and out-of-pocket costs can accumulate substantially. This is precisely why incorporating Medicare decisions into a comprehensive financial plan is so important.
The Medicare income cliff: Why IRMAA planning matters
One of the most common Medicare surprises for retirees is IRMAA—an additional charge applied to Medicare premiums that takes effect when individual income exceeds $109,000 or when a married couple filing jointly earns more than $218,000. These figures apply to the 2026 coverage year and are adjusted on an annual basis.
IRMAA, which stands for Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount, affects both Medicare Part B and Part D premiums. Unlike marginal tax brackets, where only income above each threshold is subject to a higher rate, IRMAA functions as a cliff. This means that exceeding a threshold by even one dollar results in the full surcharge for that entire bracket—a feature that can catch even well-prepared retirees off guard if income rises unexpectedly.
What makes this particularly complex is that IRMAA is calculated each year using Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) from two years prior, as that represents the most recent available tax filing. For example, the surcharge applied at age 65 is based on income from the calendar year in which you turned 63. This two-year lookback means that financial decisions made well before Medicare enrollment—such as Roth conversions, capital gains realizations, or the timing of Social Security benefits—can carry meaningful consequences.
It is also worth noting that IRMAA income thresholds differ from IRS marginal tax bracket thresholds. A common tax planning approach involves “filling up” a tax bracket by recognizing additional income through strategies like Roth conversions. However, doing so without accounting for IRMAA thresholds can inadvertently push income over a cliff, resulting in hundreds or even thousands of dollars in additional annual premiums.
Several strategies can help limit IRMAA exposure. Qualified Charitable Distributions, for instance, allow retirees to direct Required Minimum Distributions to charity without increasing Adjusted Gross Income—unlike standard charitable deductions, which reduce taxes but do not lower MAGI. Timing Roth conversions at least two years before Medicare enrollment can also be beneficial, since that income will already have passed through the lookback window before surcharges apply.
Delaying Social Security presents trade-offs on both sides. While it reduces current income and may help avoid IRMAA thresholds in the near term, the larger payments that result from delaying could coincide with Required Minimum Distributions down the road, potentially pushing income above surcharge levels in later years. These interconnected trade-offs highlight why retirement income planning requires a coordinated, multi-year approach.
Medigap vs. Medicare Advantage
In addition to income planning, another critical decision retirees face involves choosing between Medigap (also referred to as Medicare Supplement Insurance) and Medicare Advantage. This choice is shaped not only by individual healthcare needs but also by the financial risk profile of a retirement plan. From a financial planning perspective, the decision ultimately comes down to risk tolerance, lifestyle, and the desire for cost predictability.
Medigap supplements Original Medicare (Parts A and B) by helping to cover out-of-pocket costs such as deductibles, coinsurance, and copayments. Monthly premiums are higher—ranging from approximately $32 to $550 depending on the plan and location—but out-of-pocket costs are lower and more consistent.
Medicare Advantage, by contrast, serves as a comprehensive alternative to Original Medicare. These plans are provided by private insurers and often bundle dental, vision, and hearing benefits. Premiums are frequently low, making them appealing at first glance. However, they typically involve higher out-of-pocket costs with annual caps, network restrictions, and referral requirements that may in some cases result in denied care. Important trade-offs include the potential difficulty of returning to a Medicare Supplemental plan later due to medical underwriting requirements.
Medigap provides higher fixed costs with more predictable total expenditures, much like paying a higher insurance premium for broader coverage. It also offers nationwide coverage—an important feature for retirees who plan to travel frequently. Medicare Advantage, in contrast, offers lower upfront costs but introduces greater variability in annual healthcare spending, particularly for individuals with chronic conditions or unexpected medical needs.
For retirees with substantial Health Savings Account balances or other dedicated healthcare reserves, the variable costs associated with Medicare Advantage may be manageable. For those who prioritize budget certainty or who require frequent medical care, Medigap’s predictability may justify the higher premium. In 2025, the average beneficiary had access to 42 Medicare Advantage plans, underscoring how important it is to evaluate options carefully each year.
Staying current with personal circumstances and policy changes
Medicare planning is not a one-time event. It demands annual review because plan options, premiums, health status, and income levels can all shift from year to year. Monitoring policy changes—such as updates to IRMAA thresholds or other program definitions—is equally important. Unlike more predictable financial goals such as saving for education, healthcare expenses are variable and tend to grow as individuals age, making ongoing adjustments a necessary component of any retirement strategy.
Additional considerations to keep in mind:
- Timing is critical. Missing the Initial Enrollment Period—a seven-month window centered around one’s 65th birthday—can result in a permanent 10% penalty on Part B premiums for each year of delay, unless individuals qualify for a Special Enrollment Period through active employment.
- Limited long-term care coverage. One detail that surprises many is that Medicare covers only limited long-term care services under specific circumstances, such as a qualifying hospital stay followed by admission to a Medicare-approved skilled nursing facility for a condition expected to improve.
- Life events can impact costs. Significant life changes—such as job loss, divorce, or the death of a spouse—can prompt a reassessment of IRMAA surcharges, potentially lowering premiums if income declines.
When approached thoughtfully, Medicare can serve as a strong foundation for a more secure and predictable retirement. The key lies in proactive planning—taking the time to understand the program’s complexities well before they become pressing concerns.
The bottom line? Medicare decisions carry far-reaching implications for retirement income, taxes, and overall financial planning. Understanding the program’s structure, planning around income thresholds, and selecting the right coverage are essential steps to help safeguard savings and maintain financial well-being throughout retirement.
- https://data.cms.gov/summary-statistics-on-beneficiary-enrollment/medicare-and-medicaid-reports/medicare-monthly-enrollment
Whew.
That’s all for today.
Thanks for reading,
