Greetings!
As autumn markets twist between optimism and uncertainty, this week’s Advice for the Good Life helps you stay grounded in what truly matters—wealth, wellness, and wisdom.
On tap today:
In our Wealth Advisory, we unpack the Q4 2025 Market Update and what mixed economic signals mean for your portfolio strategy.
Next, our Wellness Navigator, Christine Despres offers compassionate, practical guidance on finding the right care setting for loved ones with Alzheimer’s.
And in Etcetera, our sub-advisor, CacheTech, offers their October Market Outlook that reminds us why disciplined conviction still beats prediction.
Dive in—and stay directionally correct toward wealth, health, and peace of mind.
Wealth Advisory: Q4 2025 Quarterly Market Update…Managing Mixed Economic Indicators
Market fluctuations are an inherent aspect of the investment journey, and 2025 has certainly delivered its share. While downturns—like the tariff-related volatility earlier this year—can be unsettling, they often present chances to acquire assets at more favorable price points. Conversely, when markets rebound and achieve new peaks, some investors may feel apprehensive despite solid underlying fundamentals. In either situation, maintaining portfolios designed to endure various market phases while keeping long-term financial objectives in focus becomes critically important.
Entering the year’s final quarter, investors confront contradictory indicators. During the third quarter, the S&P 500 achieved fresh record highs, buoyed by robust corporate earnings and continued excitement surrounding artificial intelligence. Simultaneously, labor market conditions have deteriorated markedly since early summer, prompting concerns about economic strength and consumer financial stability. Nevertheless, GDP growth has remained solid, and inflation has generally remained contained.
These types of market conditions highlight the value of comprehensive, long-term investment and financial strategies. Instead of responding to daily headlines and economic data releases, investors benefit more from maintaining well-designed portfolios capable of adapting to market transitions. This approach requires grasping the fundamental trends that will influence markets in coming quarters.
Primary Market and Economic Developments in Q3
- During the third quarter, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 7.8%, 11.2%, and 5.2%, respectively, with all three indices setting new records in September. For the year through September, these indices have climbed 13.7%, 17.3%, and 9.1%.
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index posted a 2.0% gain in the third quarter and has risen 6.1% year-to-date. The 10-year Treasury yield concluded the quarter at 4.15% after touching 4.02% in September.
- Developed international markets (MSCI EAFE) increased 4.2% while emerging markets (MSCI EM) gained 10.1% during the quarter.
- Gold reached a record high of $3,841 per ounce, climbing 16% during the quarter.
- Bitcoin closed at $114,641, posting quarterly gains but remaining below its August high.
- The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to 96.63 in September before finishing at 97.78 for the quarter. Year-to-date, the dollar has declined 9.9%.
- The Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% in August while core CPI increased 3.1%.
- According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report, only 22,000 net new jobs were added in August. Since May, monthly job gains have averaged just 26,800.
- The Federal Reserve reduced rates by 0.25% at its September meeting, bringing the target range to 4% to 4.25%.
Market valuations approaching historical peaks.
For long-term investors, overall market valuation levels represent a crucial consideration. Rather than merely examining market prices, valuations reveal what investors receive for those prices in terms of earnings, cash flow, sales, dividends, and other fundamental corporate metrics. While elevated valuations indicate investor optimism, they also suggest that expectations may be excessive in certain market segments.
The chart illustrates this concept using the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. The current reading of 38x significantly exceeds the 35-year average of 27x and nears levels last observed during the dot-com bubble. This metric offers a longer-term view than traditional P/E ratios by incorporating ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings history.
These valuation levels are unsurprising given the powerful rally over the past two quarters. Since April 8, the S&P 500 has surged 34%, delivering double-digit annual returns. Technology stocks across multiple sectors have spearheaded the advance, just as they led the earlier decline. The Magnificent 7 stocks, for example, have climbed 61% from their lows. Although investors increasingly question whether corporate artificial intelligence spending will yield positive returns, this investment has undeniably driven broader market performance and business capital expenditure.
Importantly, valuations do not forecast near-term market direction and should not be used for market timing. Rather, they function as essential inputs for asset allocation decisions. While overall market valuations appear stretched, this doesn’t apply uniformly across all market segments. Small-cap stocks, value-oriented equities, and international markets currently trade at more reasonable valuations compared to large-cap, growth-focused, and U.S. stocks. This disparity creates potential opportunities for investors with diversified approaches and extended time horizons.
Federal Reserve reduces rates as employment data weakens.
In September 2025, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 0.25%, continuing its easing cycle after maintaining steady rates for much of the year. This action reflects the Fed’s effort to balance persistent inflation above the 2% target against deteriorating employment conditions. Markets widely anticipated this rate reduction, which has supported asset prices in recent months.
Several factors distinguish this easing cycle from previous ones. Typically, the Fed has reduced rates in response to economic crises or recessions. Although some weakness exists today, overall economic growth remains healthy. Consequently, recent cuts represent something distinct: an effort to normalize policy following the aggressive tightening cycle that commenced in 2022. This explains why the Fed is easing policy even as the economy continues expanding and markets trade at record levels.
The deteriorating labor market has likely been the most significant factor influencing the Fed’s decision. While the 4.3% unemployment rate remains historically low, job creation has decelerated dramatically. August recorded only 22,000 new payroll additions, substantially below the 123,000 monthly average from earlier in the year.
Even more remarkable are payroll revisions indicating that 911,000 fewer jobs were created during the twelve months ending in March than initially reported, as illustrated in the accompanying chart. The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises payroll figures based on more comprehensive data than available during initial monthly releases. Although these numbers remain preliminary, a revision of this scale would be historically unprecedented, revealing that labor market conditions have been weaker than previously understood.
Therefore, the Fed is cutting rates because, per the latest FOMC statement, it “judges that downside risks to employment have risen.” For investors, rate reductions typically support both equity and fixed income markets when economic growth persists.
Policy uncertainty and market volatility have declined temporarily.
Following substantial volatility driven by tariff and tax concerns earlier this year, economic policy uncertainty measures have shown improvement. The VIX index measuring stock market volatility hovers around 16.3, below its long-term average of 18, while the MOVE index tracking bond market volatility has fallen to 78, beneath its 87 average.
As experienced long-term investors understand, calm market periods can shift rapidly. Recent years have witnessed numerous episodes of heightened volatility stemming from inflation, trade disputes, Washington policy developments, Federal Reserve actions, recession concerns, geopolitical tensions, and other factors. The current government shutdown represents merely the latest event that could disturb markets short-term, even if long-term impacts prove limited. Similarly, tariff policy outcomes and inflation effects remain unclear.
For investors, this uncertainty may feel uncomfortable, yet it also shapes long-term portfolio results. Recent years demonstrate the distinction between investor fears and actual market performance. Rather than treating uncertainty as something to avoid, successful long-term investors recognize it as an inherent market characteristic that creates opportunities to position portfolios for future years.
The bottom line? Entering the year’s final quarter, markets trade near record highs while economic signals remain mixed. This environment emphasizes the significance of maintaining proper asset allocation and remaining focused on long-term financial objectives.
Your Wellness Navigator and Holistic Health Guide: Christine Despres, RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
Finding the Right Facility for a Loved One with Alzheimer’s
I recently returned from Florida, where I was helping a loved one with Alzheimer’s after she fell, broke her hip and received surgery. Imagine being in four different places over just two weeks—then ending up in a brand-new facility you’ve never seen before, still recovering from surgery, not remembering you can’t walk and having been separated from your husband of 67 years.
It makes my head spin, so imagine how confusing and frightening it must be for someone living with cognitive impairment. Add in a urinary tract infection, an eye infection, pain, and skin issues, and you have a picture of what so many of our elders face in their so-called “golden years.”
Making the decision to move a loved one into Assisted Living, Memory Care, or Skilled Nursing is never easy. For families, it can feel overwhelming to balance emotions, practical needs, and the desire to ensure your loved one’s dignity and quality of life. For the person moving in, it’s a major transition—from independence to relying on others for support.
As a nurse who has worked in rehabilitation, skilled nursing and dementia care, I can attest there’s no perfect formula. No facility can offer guarantees—needs will change as people age, people will fall and care plans will need to be adjusted. However, by asking the right questions and doing thorough research, you can reduce the chances of multiple moves and give your loved one the best opportunity to thrive in a supportive environment.
Caregivers for Alzheimer’s or other Dementia
So many families are walking this road, we are certainly not alone. An estimated 6.7 million Americans aged 65 or older are living with Alzheimer’s dementia in 2023 (Alzheimer’s Association, 2023). In addition, more than 11 million Americans are providing care for a loved one with Alzheimer’s or another form of dementia (CDC, 2023). If you’re not personally in a caregiving role right now, chances are you know someone who is—or you will as your loved ones age.
5 Tips for Finding the Right Elder Care Facility
- Ask about “aging in place” policies.
Not all facilities are equipped to care for residents as their needs increase. Ask if they allow residents to remain as their dementia progresses, and what their lift policy is (how they handle physical transfers as mobility declines). This helps prevent future disruptive moves. - Look for specialized training and recognition.
Staff who have dementia-specific training provide more compassionate, appropriate care. Also, ask if the facility has received awards, certifications, or recognitions that show commitment to excellence in senior care. - Tour with your senses.
A facility tour should go beyond brochures. Walk through the rooms and bathrooms—are they clean, comfortable, and free of strong odors? Observe a meal to see the quality of food and how it’s served. - Observe interactions.
The best indicators of quality are the people. Watch how caregivers speak with residents—are they patient, warm, and respectful? Do the residents look comfortable, engaged, and genuinely cared for? - Compare quality ratings.
Use trusted resources like Medicare’s Care Compare tool to research skilled nursing facilities. Look for facilities with strong ratings (ideally 5 stars), no complaints on file but consider balancing that with what you observe during your tour and other available reviews.
Placing a loved one in an Elderly Care Facility is one of the most important—and emotional—decisions a family can make. While no place can ever feel exactly like home, doing lots of research and asking the right questions when you are on tours will help you feel more confident in finding a safe, caring, and supportive place for your loved one as they age.
To work with Christine, please reach her through her email at christine@thewellnessnavigator.com.
From JCG Advisory Partner, CacheTech
Market Outlook – October 2025
Resilient Momentum Amid Uncertainty
Markets entered the fourth quarter with remarkable strength. Fading fears of a recession, renewed momentum in corporate earnings, and the Fed’s first rate cut of the year all helped propel equities to fresh record highs in September—a month that is historically weak for stocks. Encouragingly, that momentum has continued into October, even against the backdrop of a federal government shutdown.
Performance Highlights
- Nasdaq 100: +5.40% in September; +18.08% YTD.
- S&P 500 Index: +3.53% in September, led by Technology (+7.73%); +14.24% YTD. Technology remains the standout sector, up 23% YTD, driven by AI, cloud data centers, and the utilities powering them.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU): +1.87% in September; +9.97% YTD. The price-weighted structure of the index continues to underrepresent technology, limiting performance.
- Gold: Surged to $3,882.40 from $3,516.90 last month, as central banks and investors piled into the safe-haven asset.
- U.S. Dollar & Treasuries: The dollar stabilized, while investors also sought safety in Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.13%, reflecting both confidence in Fed policy and demand for U.S. debt.
Economic Backdrop
Recession worries have faded substantially. After early-year weakness, GDP rebounded, with Q2 revised higher to 3.8% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projecting the same pace for Q3. Consumer resilience remains the linchpin: while lower-income households are stretched, high earners and retiring baby boomers flush with cash continue to drive demand.
Tariffs, meanwhile, have been less disruptive than feared—adding modestly to consumer goods prices but not derailing growth or inflation. Inflation remains sticky, mostly due to housing, but the Fed has shifted its focus to labor market softness. Hiring has slowed, with more businesses choosing automation, yet layoffs remain scarce. Weekly jobless claims—a key signal—have stayed muted.
Policy & Politics
Serving as a tailwind to investor confidence, the One Big Beautyful Bill Act is set to stimulate both corporate and consumer spending. Businesses benefit from incentives to invest in AI and data centers, while individuals are expected to receive roughly $150 billion in additional tax refunds in early 2026.
Meanwhile, the Fed insisted on its independence amid political turbulence while cutting rates by 25 bps to 4.00–4.25% and signaling further easing. Markets now anticipate additional 25 bps cuts in both October and December. However, the federal shutdown has disrupted official economic reporting, forcing the Fed to lean on private data: ADP payrolls showed a surprise decline in September, and ISM surveys signaled continued labor market weakness.
Market Valuations & Strategy
Valuations remain stretched: the S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of ~23, well above the 25-year average of 17. Much of this is concentrated in AI and data center stocks—evoking memories of the late-1990s dot-com era. However, today’s rally is supported by tangible revenue growth and government-backed infrastructure investment, lending greater durability to the story.
Our approach reflects both conviction and caution in an uncertain era:
- High-Conviction Equity Strategy: Focused on selecting companies with long-term competitive advantages, particularly in AI, cloud computing, and data centers infrastructure.
Proactive Core Portfolio via ETFs: A globally diversified foundation built to reduce the concentration risk inherent in the S&P 500—which is dominated by just seven mega-cap leaders—while adding value through selective, short-term macroeconomic-driven trades. At present, we are emphasizing unique opportunities in Vietnam, Italy, and European aerospace & defense stocks.
To learn more about CacheTech and the myriad ways in which they serve JCG Advisory Partners, LLC and our clients, click here.
That’s all for today.
To wealth, health, and wisdom,
