| Greetings!
Welcome to this week’s edition of “Advice for the Good Life,” where we equip you with insights for thriving in today’s dynamic wealth and wellness landscape.
In today’s Wealth Advisory, we’ll analyze mixed economic signals, focusing on job growth and consumer financial wellness, to help you make informed investment decisions amid uncertainty.
Next, Wellness Navigator, Christine Despres, guides us through Healthy Aging and Alzheimer’s Awareness Month in September, and shares six actionable tips for improving brain health and supporting cognitive function as you age.
Finally, in our Etcetera section, we yield the floor to our favorite economists, Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein, who explore the societal implications of immigration policies, tariffs, and advances in AI technology to help you make sense of today’s complexities.
Thank you for joining us this week!
We hope you find valuable insights in our content enough to share it with your friends, family, and co-workers.
Enjoy the read!
Wealth Advisory: Key Perspectives on Jobs and Mixed Economic Signals
Market participants frequently concentrate on historical data despite recognizing that future developments matter most. Current backward-looking economic reports have generated concern among some investors and officials regarding potential recession risks. Today’s environment presents conflicting indicators: employment growth is decelerating and inflation persists, yet joblessness stays relatively contained while overall economic expansion continues. For investors with extended time horizons, these contradictory signals underscore the importance of maintaining equilibrium in their outlook.
Economic data interpretation presents ongoing challenges, as market factor analysis rarely offers clear-cut conclusions. During such periods, concentrating on economic fundamentals rather than media coverage proves beneficial. Consumer financial wellness serves as an ideal starting point, given that household expenditures account for more than two-thirds of economic activity and significantly influence business revenues plus broader economic performance. What does consumer health look like in today’s intricate economic landscape?
Employment conditions have deteriorated in recent months.
Examining employment conditions provides insight into consumer financial wellness. Recent employment data offered additional confirmation that workforce demand is declining more significantly than anticipated. August saw merely 22,000 new positions created per Bureau of Labor Statistics data, falling short of the 75,000 economists projected. The report incorporated meaningful adjustments to earlier monthly data, with June’s employment figures revealing a 13,000 job reduction that month, representing the initial decline since 2020.
Though these statistics carry significance and receive extensive financial press attention, economists examine more than monthly employment headline figures, which demonstrate volatility. They instead analyze patterns and evaluate “labor market slack” – essentially measuring whether job seekers can secure employment.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently characterized today’s employment landscape as maintaining “a curious kind of balance” since both worker availability and employer demand have decelerated.1 The 4.3% unemployment rate represents encouraging evidence that most individuals seeking work can obtain it. The “under-employment” measurement, encompassing workers who have stopped searching, remains historically modest at 8.1%. Additional data indicates approximately one available position exists per unemployed person nationwide. While this doesn’t guarantee universal employment, it demonstrates continued corporate hiring activity.
This significance lies in its combination with employment figures, suggesting gradual labor market cooling rather than abrupt deterioration. The crucial distinction involves unemployment spikes historically occurring only during economic disruptions, including the 2008 financial crisis or 2020 pandemic. Current conditions appear to reflect natural economic transitions. For Federal Reserve officials, this employment path increases September rate reduction probability.
Household financial conditions demonstrate strength amid obstacles.
Despite employment market softening, consumer financial health generally displays “two-speed economy” characteristics – where financial circumstances differ based on wealth and income factors. Numerous investors have emphasized these metrics because aggregate debt levels continue climbing across credit cards, vehicle financing, student borrowing, and additional categories. Increased household leverage can prove problematic during economic downturns, a factor that initially triggered the 2008 financial crisis.
Evaluating household financial stability involves examining payment timeliness. The accompanying chart demonstrates credit card and auto loan delinquencies have risen over two years, partly due to increased consumer borrowing and recently elevated interest rates. This delinquency increase has concentrated among lower credit score borrowers, offering additional two-speed economy evidence.
Nevertheless, the chart reveals these delinquency rates have stabilized recently and stay considerably below pre-2008 levels. Although national debt totals remain elevated, household debt service payments have stayed constant in recent months. This indicates that while certain households may experience increased pressure servicing loan interest and principal, these levels haven’t reached historically recession-inducing thresholds.
Household wealth stays near historical peaks.
Focusing exclusively on consumer liability aspects proves tempting, as difficulties often originate there. However, asset components carry equal importance, and U.S. household wealth remains near record territory today. The accompanying chart illustrates this trend.
At $169 trillion, wealth has expanded over fifteen years through consistent economic development, appreciating home values, and robust equity market performance. This again reflects two-speed economic conditions since households with recent increased borrowing may differ from those benefiting from rising asset valuations. Nevertheless, this wealth effect, where increasing asset values support consumer expenditures, can provide economic stability. This explains why numerous recent concerns haven’t always directly resulted in economic weakness.
This also reminds us what drives wealth accumulation over time, and why maintaining portfolios aligned with financial objectives matters. Throughout this timeframe, investors frequently worried about recessions. While markets may respond to negative data or experience short-term declines, they often “climb the wall of worry” over extended periods. For patient investors, concentrating on long-term economic direction proves far more valuable than focusing on historical performance.
The bottom line? Although employment growth has decelerated, increasing September Fed rate cut likelihood, it represents just one element of the complete economic picture. When future direction remains unclear, investors should emphasize fundamental economic patterns to maintain portfolio balance.
Your Wellness Navigator and Holistic Health Guide: Christine Despres, RN, NBC-HWC, CDP
September: Healthy Aging & Alzheimer’s Awareness Month
September is both Alzheimer’s Awareness Month and Healthy Aging Month—a perfect combination. To age well, you need a healthy brain, and preventing cognitive decline is at the heart of that journey.
I’ve been a nurse for 30 years, working in rehabilitation, skilled nursing, hospice, and dementia care. What began as fear has become my passion: helping women in midlife create a brain-healthy lifestyle that sharpens their minds, boosts confidence, and helps them thrive vibrantly in their next chapter.
When you prioritize brain health and care for your body, everything else—sleep, memory, clarity, even weight—can fall into place.
Why Brain Health Matters
Did you know cognitive decline is the #1 health concern as we age?
The fear of losing memory, independence, and control—or becoming a burden—is real. But here’s the truth:
- “One percent of the population develops Alzheimer’s because of genetic mutations; 1 percent, no more than that. For 99% of us, of course, your genetics play a role on some level: they can put you at risk, they can give you a higher risk, a lower risk, but they are not the entire story.” Gennev: Expert Virtual Menopause Care
- “What you do today can influence your brain’s aging over the next 20–30 years,” says Dr. Marc Milstein. Good Life Project
- “Half of Alzheimer’s cases are preventable, according to recent findings.” Dr. Amen highlights that half of Alzheimer’s cases may be avoidable through proactive lifestyle choices.
Fox NewsNew York Post
If you wait until symptoms show up—like memory lapses, brain fog, or poor concentration—you’re already late to the party. These changes affect 60% of women in midlife (myself included), but they are not “normal aging.” They’re signals.
The good news? You have the power to change your brain’s trajectory. Starting now.
The 6 Pillars of Brain Health (AARP)
Strengthening these six areas can protect your brain for decades to come:
- Be Social – Stay connected with friends, family, and community for cognitive and emotional well-being.
- Engage Your Brain – Challenge your mind with new skills, reading, or problem-solving to build “cognitive reserve.”
- Manage Stress – Practice stress relief through meditation, laughter, time in nature, or mindfulness.
- Exercise – Move regularly with a mix of cardio, strength, flexibility, and balance for better memory, mood, and blood flow.
- Restorative Sleep – Prioritize 7–8 hours of quality sleep to support memory and clear toxins from the brain.
- Eat Right – Choose brain-healthy diets like Mediterranean or MIND, rich in plants, fish, and healthy fats while limiting processed foods.
Small Steps, Big Results
Behavior change is hard—just think of all those abandoned New Year’s resolutions. That’s why accountability and support matter. When you surround yourself with a system that encourages consistency, change becomes easier and more sustainable.
The key is: Just start showing up. Awareness is the first step to making change. Talking about brain health, being open to new ideas, and creating space for growth and new habits—all of that matters. And so do you.
✨ I’m here to walk beside you as your guide and co-pilot on this journey. Together, we can turn intention into action—one step at a time.
~Let Your Brain Health Journey Start with me, now!!
JOIN ME – OCTOBER 1st 10 am ET for my next Free 30-Min Virtual Brain Boost Sessions
*This is your invitation!! 30 minutes to focus just on you. You deserve it! Plus it’s a gift. When you optimize brain function, everything else gets better—from your energy, focus and mood to your sleep, hormones, and weight. This is my wish for you. Living your best life!
Please share with your friends, family and coworkers who may also benefit from reducing stress, creating clarity and improving their holistic health habits. Thank you❤️
Sign up here:👉 Free Brain Boost Sessions 👇
And remember: your mind is your greatest asset. Protect it well. 💙
Sincerely,
Christine
If interested in working with Christine directly, you can reach her through her email at christine@thewellnessnavigator.com or www.thewellnessnavigator.com.
Immigration, Tariffs, and AI, Oh My!
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 9/8/2025
Over the past twenty years, in spite of incredible new technologies, US real GDP growth has averaged just 2.0% at an annual rate. By contrast, in the twenty years prior to the most recent twenty – from the mid-1980s thru the mid-2000s – real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate. Some slower growth is due to the aging and retirement of Boomers, but in our view, the real culprit is the expansion in the size of government.
Government spending surged in 2008 and during COVID. At the same time the Federal Reserve held interest rates extremely low, M2 growth surged, immigration accelerated, and environmental regulation altered economic activity. Economists in government and academia promised us this would boost growth and jobs, instead growth slowed.
But now policies are changing. The Big Beautiful Bill avoided a tax hike in 2026 (and made current tax rates permanent), tariffs are heading higher, immigration has slowed significantly, and regulations are being reduced. In the first half of this year, the economy grew at a 1.4% annual rate. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model currently projects a 3.0% growth rate in the third quarter. If that forecast turns out to be accurate, the annualized growth rate for the first three quarters of this year would be 1.9%, in-line with the modest long-term 2.0% trend.
At the same time, Artificial Intelligence is taking off and even though estimates about how AI will impact productivity and growth are all over the map they all say it’s positive.
So, with all these cross currents, uncertainty is substantial and to say the economic data have been “quirky” lately would be an understatement. Nonfarm payrolls were up only 22,000 in August and are up only 70,000 per month in the past seven months versus growth of 146,000 per month in the same seven months in 2024. Trade patterns are extremely volatile, with real GDP down in Q1, but up in Q2 and Q3.
A sharp drop in immigration is likely a key factor behind slower job growth. Meanwhile, government payrolls are down 97,000 in the past seven months, the biggest (non-Census related) seven-month drop in at least 35 years. We view this a positive for long-term private sector growth, but also a drag on jobs in the short-term.
But even as job growth has slowed, much of the economy has been holding up quite well. Through July, retail sales are up 4.1% versus the same period in 2024; sales of cars and light trucks have averaged a 16.3 million annual rate so far this year, versus a 15.5 million rate in the first eight months of 2024.
Manufacturing output in the first seven months of this year is up 0.8% versus the same seven months in 2024. That might not sound like much, but factory production is below where it was ten years ago, so any growth in this sector is good news.
Is some of this increase in manufacturing due to reshoring because of tariffs? After all, that’s what tariffs are supposed to do. But the stop-start nature of some of the tariffs, as well as uncertainty regarding whether the courts will eventually strike down the tariffs is likely an obstacle for many firms to build out this production in the US. It’s tough to make large, long-term commitments with so much uncertainty.
The case now nearing the Supreme Court is a prime example, with the Kalshi prediction market tilting toward a Trump Administration loss. This all has to do with questions about whether Congress has delegated authority over tariffs to the executive, or whether trade deficits, fentanyl and border security are “emergencies” which the executive must address.
But even if SCOTUS strikes down the tariffs by early next year, that’s not the last word. President Trump would likely use other laws already on the books to try to impose tariffs, or could seek legislation to raise tariffs, possibly through budget reconciliation, which would require only a simple majority in the Senate. In other words, uncertainty remains on this issue.
That leaves AI…clearly it changes things. Is it like the railroad or cellphone which accelerated travel, communication and trade? Or does it cannibalize activity in areas like search or coding?
Growth in certain tech jobs has already leveled off. We are not Luddites and don’t expect mass unemployment from AI; but some will gain while others lose.
In the near term we do not see an economic boom from AI similar to what happened in the 1990s in the first internet boom. Then, economic growth picked up quickly; so far, with AI, we are still waiting. And whether growth picks up in the future is still dependent on whether or not Congress and the President can get spending under control.
That’s all for today.
Until next week,
All my best,
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